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The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to\udpast and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity\udof run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the\udexposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme\udrainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and\udthus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a\udcombined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach\udsuitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial\udflooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and\udfuture climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces\udbased on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are\udcombined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future\udrainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard\udassessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense.\udResults suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has\udincreased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year\udrainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for\udRCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of\ud40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can\udplay a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also\udfor their adaptation to a changed climate

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation