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. Great progress has been madein understanding the mesoscale eddies and their role on the large-scale structure andcirculation of the oceans. However, many questions still remain to be resolved,especially with regard to the reproductivity and predictability of mesoscale eddies. Inthis study, the reproductivity and predictability of mesoscale eddies in the northernSouth China Sea (NSCS), a region with strong eddy activity, are investigated with a focuson two typical anticyclonic eddies (AE1 and AE2) based on a HYCOM–EnOI assimilatedsystem. The comparisons of assimilated results and observations suggest that generation,evolution, and propagation paths of AE1 and AE2 can be well reproduced and forecastedwhen the observed amplitude is >8  cm (or the advective nonlinearityparameter U∕c is >2 ), although their forcingmechanisms are quite different. However, when their amplitudes are less than 8 cm, thegeneration and decay of these two mesoscale eddies cannot be well reproduced andpredicted by the system. This result suggests, in addition to dynamical mechanisms, thatthe spatial resolution of assimilation observation data and numerical models must betaken into account in reproducing and predicting mesoscale eddies in the NSCS.

Could the two anticyclonic eddies during winter 2003/2004 be reproduced and predicted in the northern South China Sea?