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. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impactsocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatialscales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-basedinferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOCvariability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction toprovide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. Aneasily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformationof water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at45 ∘  N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and itsongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for theearly 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove abi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic beforetriggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail atleast until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding andpredicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond.

Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic