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. The predictability of the sea surface height expression of baroclinic tides is examined with 96 h forecastsproduced by the AMSEAS operational forecast model during 2013 – 2014 .The phase-locked tide, both barotropic and baroclinic, is identified by harmonic analysis of the 2 -year record and found to agree well with observations from tide gaugesand satellite altimetry within the Caribbean Sea.The non-phase-locked baroclinic tide, which iscreated by time-variable mesoscale stratification and currents, may be identified fromresidual sea level anomalies (SLAs) near the tidal frequencies.The predictability of the non-phase-locked tide is assessed by measuring the differencebetween a forecast – centered at T+36 , T+60 , or T+84  h – andthe model's later verifying analysis for the same time.Within the Caribbean Sea, where a baroclinic tidal sea level range of ±5 cm is typical,the forecast error for the non-phase-locked tidal SLA is correlated with the forecasterror for the subtidal (mesoscale) SLA.Root mean square values of the former range from 0.5 to 2 cm , while the latter ranges from 1 to 6 cm , for a typical 84  h forecast.The spatial and temporal variability of the forecast error is related to thedynamical origins of the non-phase-locked tide and is briefly surveyedwithin the model.

Predictability of non-phase-locked baroclinic tides in the Caribbean Sea