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. Tide predictions based on tide-gauge observations are not justthe astronomical tides; they also contain radiational tides –periodic sea-level changes due to atmospheric conditions and solar forcing. This poses aproblem of double-counting for operational forecasts of total water levelduring storm surges. In some surge forecasting, a regional model is run intwo modes: tide only, with astronomic forcing alone; and tide and surge,forced additionally by surface winds and pressure. The surge residual isdefined to be the difference between these configurations and is added to thelocal harmonic predictions from gauges. Here we use the Global Tide and SurgeModel (GTSM) based on Delft-FM to investigate this in the UK and elsewhere,quantifying the weather-related tides that may be double-counted inoperational forecasts. We show that the global S2 atmospheric tide is captured by thetide-and-surge model and observe changes in other major constituents,including M2 . The Lowest and Highest Astronomical Tide levels,used in navigation datums and design heights, are derived from tidepredictions based on observations. We use our findings on radiational tidesto quantify the extent to which these levels may contain weather-relatedcomponents.

Radiational tides: their double-counting in storm surge forecasts and contribution to the Highest Astronomical Tide