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Detecting the atmospheric drivers of the Benguela upwelling systems  isessential to understand its present variability and its past and futurechanges. We present a statistical analysis of a high-resolution(0.1°) ocean-only simulation driven by observed atmospheric fieldsover the last 60 years with the aim of identifying the large-scaleatmospheric drivers of upwelling variability and trends. The simulation isfound to reproduce well the seasonal cycle of upwelling intensity, with amaximum in the June–August season in North Benguela and in theDecember–February season in South Benguela. The statistical analysis ofthe interannual variability of upwelling focuses on its relationship toatmospheric variables (sea level pressure, 10 m wind, wind stress).The relationship between upwelling and the atmospheric variables differsomewhat in the two regions, but generally  the correlation patterns reflectthe common atmospheric pattern favouring upwelling: southerly wind/windstress, strong subtropical anticyclone, and an ocean–land sea level pressuregradient. In addition, the statistical link between upwelling and large-scaleclimate variability modes was analysed. The El Niño–Southern Oscillationand the Antarctic Oscillation exert some influence on austral summerupwelling velocities in South Benguela. The decadal evolution and thelong-term trends of simulated upwelling and of ocean-minus-land air pressuregradient do not agree with Bakun's hypothesis that anthropogenic climatechange should generally intensify coastal upwelling

Decadal variability and trends of the Benguela upwelling system as simulated in a high-resolution ocean simulation