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. The multiple equilibria are an outstanding characteristicof the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that has importantimpacts on the Earth climate system appearing as regime transitions. TheAMOC can be simulated in different models, but the behavior deviates from the real world due to the existence of model errors. Here, we first combine ageneral AMOC model with an ensemble Kalman filter to form an ensemblecoupled model data assimilation and parameter estimation (CDAPE) system and derive the general methodology to capture the observed AMOC regimetransitions through utilization of observational information. Then we applythis methodology designed within a “twin” experiment framework with asimple conceptual model that simulates the transition phenomenon of AMOCmultiple equilibria as well as a more physics-based MOC box model to reconstruct the “observed” AMOC multiple equilibria. The results show thatthe coupled model parameter estimation with observations can significantlymitigate the model deviations, thus capturing regime transitions of theAMOC. This simple model study serves as a guideline when a coupled generalcirculation model is used to incorporate observations to reconstruct theAMOC historical states and make multi-decadal climate predictions.

A study of capturing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) regime transition through observation-constrained model parameters