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. Major geomagnetic storms are caused by unusually intense solar windsouthward magnetic fields that impinge upon the Earthu0027s magnetosphere(Dungey, 1961). How can we predict the occurrence of future interplanetaryevents? Do we currently know enough of the underlying physics and do we havesufficient observations of solar wind phenomena that will impinge upon theEarthu0027s magnetosphere? We view this as the most important challenge in spaceweather. We discuss the case for magnetic clouds (MCs), interplanetarysheaths upstream of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs),corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and solar wind high-speed streams(HSSs). The sheath- and CIR-related magnetic storms will be difficult topredict and will require better knowledge of the slow solar wind andmodeling to solve. For interplanetary space weather, there are challengesfor understanding the fluences and spectra of solar energetic particles(SEPs). This will require better knowledge of interplanetary shockproperties as they propagate and evolve going from the Sun to 1 AU (andbeyond), the upstream slow solar wind and energetic “seed” particles.Dayside aurora, triggering of nightside substorms, and formation of newradiation belts can all be caused by shock and interplanetary ram pressureimpingements onto the Earthu0027s magnetosphere. The acceleration and loss ofrelativistic magnetospheric “killer” electrons and prompt penetratingelectric fields in terms of causing positive and negative ionospheric stormsare reasonably well understood, but refinements are still needed. Theforecasting of extreme events (extreme shocks, extreme solar energeticparticle events, and extreme geomagnetic storms (Carrington events orgreater)) are also discussed. Energetic particle precipitation into theatmosphere and ozone destruction are briefly discussed. For many of thestudies, the Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Magnetospheric MultiscaleMission (MMS), Arase, and SWARM data will be useful.

The physics of space weather/solar-terrestrial physics (STP): what we know now and what the current and future challenges are