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The paper analyses the prevailing breach mech- anisms of fluvial dikes. Piping in the dike foundation and slope failure as a consequence of seepage flow through a dike core (micro-instability) were identified as two of the domi- nant breach mechanisms for historically-grown dikes along with overtopping and slope macro-instability. For the for- mer two mechanisms the physically-based and empirical pro- cess descriptions were reviewed and led to the formulation of the reliability functions. Evaluation of these functions in the Monte Carlo framework for the time dependent load led to the development of fragility functions. These functions in- dicate the probability of failure of a dike section upon load- ing and can be computed for each spatially discretised dike section. The probability of breaching is conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters. This uncertainty is explicitly taken into account during com- putation of the fragility functions in a Monte Carlo simula- tion. Sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the sensitive geotechnical parameters influencing the distri- bution of failure probability. The identification of sensitive parameters indicates the priorities in geotechnical measure- ment campaigns aimed at the assessment of dike stability. The newly developed fragility functions can be applied in flood hazard and risk assessment studies for modelling of dike failures in a probabilistic framework.

Development of dike fragility curves for piping and micro-instability breach mechanisms