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Occurrences of tropical cyclones at a location are rare, and for manylocations, only short periods of observations or hindcasts are available.Hence, estimation of return values (corresponding to a period considerablylonger than that for which data is available) for cyclone-induced significantwave height (SWH) from small samples is challenging. The STM-E (space-timemaximum and exposure) model was developed to provide reduced bias in estimatesof return values compared to competitor approaches in such situations, andrealistic estimates of return value uncertainty. STM-E exploits data from aspatial neighbourhood satisfying certain conditions, rather than data from asingle location, for return value estimation.  This article provides critical assessment of the STM-E model for tropicalcyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe for which a large database ofsynthetic cyclones is available, corresponding to more than 3,000 years ofobservation. Results indicate that STM-E yields values for the 500-year returnvalue of SWH and its variability, estimated from 200 years of cyclone data,consistent with direct empirical estimates obtained by sampling 500 years ofdata from the full synthetic cyclone database; similar results were found forestimation of the 100-year return value from samples corresponding toapproximately 50 years of data. In general, STM-E also provides reduced biasand more realistic uncertainty estimates for return values relative to singlelocation analysis.

natural hazards and earth system sciences

Statistical estimation of spatial wave extremes for tropical cyclones  from small data samples: validation of the STM-E approach using long-term  synthetic cyclone data for the Caribbean Sea