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Abstract. Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcaniccrises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimizepotential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of theaffected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses theeffectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using the small island ofVulcano (southern Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that theoverall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with thepercentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneousevacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. Forexample, during the touristic (high) season between July and August, eventhough the overall duration is similar for both evacuation strategies, after∼ 6 h about 96 % of people would be evacuated with asimultaneous evacuation, while only 86 % would be evacuated with a stagedevacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact ofevacuation as a function of evacuation duration and of the starting period withrespect to the touristic season. It reveals that if an evacuation lasting 3 to 6 months was initiated at the beginning or at the end of the touristicseason (i.e. June or November), it would cause a very different economicimpact on the tourism industry (about 78 %–88 % and 2 %–7 % of the totalannual turnover, respectively). Our results show how the assessment ofevacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact carried out ina pre-disaster context helps authorities develop evacuation plans and makeinformed decisions outside the highly stressful time period thatcharacterizes crises.

Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy