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. Several studies have shown that global changes have important impacts inmountainous areas, since they affect natural hazards induced byhydrometeorological events such as landslides. The present study evaluates,through an innovative method, the influence of both vegetation cover andclimate change on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to2100. We first focused on assessing future land use and land cover changes throughthe construction of four prospective socioeconomic scenarios and theirprojection to 2040 and 2100. Secondly, climate change parameters were usedto extract the water saturation of the uppermost layers, according to twogreenhouse gas emission scenarios. The impacts of land cover and climatechange based on these scenarios were then used to modulate thehydromechanical model to compute the factor of safety (FoS) and the hazardlevels over the considered area. The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stabilitythrough the presence and type of forest. The resulting changes arestatistically significant but small and dependent on future land coverlinked to the socioeconomic scenarios. In particular, a reduction in humanactivity results in an increase in slope stability; in contrast, an increasein anthropic activity leads to an opposite evolution in the region, withsome reduction in slope stability. Climate change may also have a significant impact in some areas because ofthe increase in the soil water content; the results indicate a reduction inthe FoS in a large part of the study area, depending on the landslide typeconsidered. Therefore, even if future forest growth leads to slopestabilization, the evolution of the groundwater conditions will lead todestabilization. The increasing rate of areas prone to landslides is higherfor the shallow landslide type than for the deep landslide type.Interestingly, the evolution of extreme events is related to the frequencyof the highest water filling ratio. The results indicate that theoccurrences of landslide hazards in the near future (2021–2050 period,scenario RCP8.5) and far future (2071–2100 period, scenario RCP8.5) areexpected to increase by factors of 1.5 and 4, respectively.

Modelling landslide hazards under global changes: the case of a Pyrenean valley