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. Coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to bedesigned to withstand extreme weather conditions and must, in particular, beprotected against coastal floods because it is the most important source ofcoastal lowland inundations. Indeed, considering the combination of tideand extreme storm surges (SSs) is a key issue in the evaluation of the riskassociated with coastal flooding hazard. Most existing studies are generallybased on the assumption that high tides and extreme SSs areindependent. While there are several approaches to analyze and characterizecoastal flooding hazard with either extreme SSs or sea levels, only fewstudies propose and compare several approaches combining the tide densitywith the SS variable. Thus this study aims to develop a method for modelingdependence and coincidence of SSs and high tide. In this work, we have usedexisting methods for tide and SS combination and tried to improve theresults by proposing a new alternative approach while showing thelimitations and advantages of each method. Indeed, in order to estimateextreme sea levels, the classic joint probability method (JPM) is used bymaking use of a convolution between tide and the skew storm surge (SSS).Another statistical indirect analysis using the maximum instantaneous stormsurge (MSS) is proposed in this paper as an alternative to the first methodwith the SSS variable. A direct frequency analysis using the extreme totalsea level is also used as a reference method. The question we are trying toanswer in this paper is then the coincidence and dependency essential for acombined tide and SS hazard analysis. The results brought to light a bias inthe MSS-based procedure compared to the direct statistics on sea levels, and thisbias is more important for high return periods. It was also concluded thatan appropriate coincidence probability concept, considering the dependencestructure between SSs, is needed for a better assessment of the risk usingthe MSS. The city of Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall,the example has shown that the return level (RL) estimates using the MSSvariable are quite different from those obtained with the method usingthe SSSs, with acceptable uncertainty. Furthermore, the shape parameter isnegative from all the methods with a much heavier tail when the SSS and theextreme sea levels (ESLs) are used as variables of interest.

natural hazards and earth system sciences

Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)