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. Southwestern China is characterized by many steep mountains and deep valleys due to the uplift activity of the Tibetan Plateau. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake left large amounts of loose materials in this area, making it a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. Susceptibility is a significant factor of debris flows for evaluating their formation and impact. Therefore, there is an urgent need to analyze the susceptibility to debrisflows of this area. To quantitatively predict the susceptibility of the area to debrisflows, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies, which are distributed along the Brahmaputra River, Nujiang River,Yalong River, Dadu River, and Ming River, as statisticalsamples. Nine indexes arechosen to construct a factor index system and then to evaluate thesusceptibility to debris flow. They are the catchment area, longitudinalgradient, average gradient of the slope on both sides of the gully,catchment morphology, valley orientation, loose material reserves, locationof the main loose material, antecedent precipitation, and rainfallintensity. Following this, an empirical model based on the Type I quantification theory is established for susceptibility prediction for debris flows insouthwestern China. Finally, 10 debris flow gullies upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.

A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China