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. We address an approach for rockfall hazard evaluation where the study arearesides below a cliff in an a priori exposure to rockfall hazard, but nohistorical documentation of rockfall events is available and henceimportant rockfall hazard parameters like triggering mechanism andrecurrence interval are unknown. We study the rockfall hazard for the town of Qiryat Shemona, northern Israel,situated alongside the Dead Sea Transform, at the foot of the Ramimescarpment. Numerous boulders are scattered on the slopes above the town,while pre-town historical aerial photos reveal that boulders had reachedthe location that is now within town limits. We use field observations and opticallystimulated luminescence dating of past rockfall events combined with computermodeling to evaluate the rockfall hazard. For the analysis, we first mappedthe rockfall source and final downslope stop sites and compiled the bouldersize distribution. We then simulated the possible rockfall trajectories usingthe field observed data to calibrate the simulation software by comparingsimulated and mapped boulder stop sites along selected slopes, whileadjusting model input parameters for best fit. The analysis reveals areas ofhigh rockfall hazard at the southwestern quarters of the town and alsoindicates that in the studied slopes falling blocks would stop where theslope angle decreases below 5–10 ∘ . Age determination suggests thatthe rockfalls were triggered by large ( M>6 ) historical earthquakes.Nevertheless, not all large historical earthquakes triggered rockfalls.Considering the size distribution of the past rockfalls in the study area andthe recurrence time of large earthquakes in the region, we estimate aprobability of less than 5 % to be affected by a destructive rockfallwithin a 50-year time window. Here we suggest a comprehensive method to evaluate rockfall hazard whereonly past rockfall evidence exists in the field. We show the importance ofintegrating spatial and temporal field observations to assess the extent ofrockfall hazard, the potential block size distribution and the rockfallrecurrence interval.

Evaluating earthquake-induced rockfall hazard near the Dead Sea Transform