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. Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation (FP) can lead to severe damage and thefailure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projectedchanges to extreme ice loads – those used to design infrastructure overNorth America (NA) – for future periods of specified global mean temperaturechange (GMTC), relative to the recent 1986–2016 period, using a large50-member initial-condition ensemble of the CanRCM4 regional climate model,driven by CanESM2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis is based on3-hourly ice accretions on horizontal, vertical and radial surfacescalculated based on FP diagnosed by the offline Bourgouin algorithm and windspeed during FP. The CanRCM4 ensemble projects an increase in future designice loads for most of northern NA and decreases for most of southern NA andsome northeastern coastal regions. These changes are mainly caused byregional increases in future upper-level and surface temperatures associatedwith global warming. Projected changes in design ice thickness are alsoaffected by changes in future precipitation intensity and surface wind speed.Changes in upper-level and surface temperature conditions for FP occurrencein CanRCM4 are in broad agreement with those from nine global climate modelsbut display regional differences under the same level of global warming,indicating that a larger multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble may be neededto better account for additional sources of structural and scenariouncertainty. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than40 ∘  N are substantial and would have clear implications for futurebuilding and infrastructure design.

natural hazards and earth system sciences

Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations