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. Many high and steep slopes are comprised of special topographic and geomorphictypes and formed through mining activities during the construction of mountain expressways.Severe soil erosion may also occur under heavy rainfall conditions.Therefore, predicting soil loss on highway slopes is important in protectinginfrastructure and human life. In this study, we investigate XinheExpressway located at the southern edge of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. TheRevised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) is used as the prediction model forsoil and water loss on slopes. Geographic information systems, remotesensing technology, field surveys, run-off plot observation testing, clusteranalysis and co-kriging calculations are also utilised. The partition of theprediction units of soil loss on the expressway slope in the mountainousarea and the spatial distribution of rainfall on a linear highway arestudied. Given the particularity of the expressway slope in the mountainousarea, the model parameter is modified, and the risk of soil loss along themountain expressway is simulated and predicted under 20- and 1-year rainfallreturn periods. The following results are obtained. (1) Natural watershedscan be considered for the prediction of slope soil erosion to represent theactual situation of soil loss on each slope. Then, the spatial location ofthe soil erosion unit can be determined. (2) Analysis of actual observationdata shows that the overall average absolute error of the monitoring area is0.39 t ha −1 , the overall average relative error is 33.96 %and the overall root mean square error is between 0.21 and 0.66, all ofwhich are within acceptable limits. The Nash efficiency coefficient is 0.67,indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model satisfies therequirements. (3) Under the 1-year rainfall return period condition, we findthrough risk classification that the percentage of prediction units with norisk of erosion is 78 %. The soil erosion risk is low and does not affectroad traffic safety. Under the 20-year return period rainfall condition, thepercentage of units with high and extremely high risks is 7.11 %. Theprediction results can help adjust the design of water and soil conservationmeasures for these units.

natural hazards and earth system sciences

Dangerous degree forecast of soil loss on highway slopes in mountainous areas of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (China) using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation