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. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of dailyforecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combineshistorical information about radiative energy released by fire events withdaily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite ApplicationFacility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre forMedium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based ondaily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurringat the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors bymeans of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a dailymodel based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire dangerare then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. Themodel is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004–2016) and validatedagainst the period of January–September 2017. Results obtained show thatabout 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the“extreme” class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is morethan 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currentlyoperational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest FireInformation System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated bythe LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure isexpected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within theframework of agricultural and forest management practices.

Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat