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. Atmospheric river (AR) systems play a significant role in the simultaneousoccurrence of high coastal water levels and heavy precipitation in theNetherlands. Based on observed precipitation values (E-OBS) and the output ofa numerical storm surge model (WAQUA/DSCMv5) forced with ERA-Interim sealevel pressure and wind fields, we find that the majority of compound events(CEs) between 1979 and 2015 have been accompanied by the presence of an ARover the Netherlands. In detail, we show that CEs have a 3 to 4 times higherchance of occurrence on days with an AR over the Netherlands compared to anyrandom day (i.e. days without knowledge on presence of an AR). In contrast,the occurrence of a CE on a day without AR is 3 times less likely than on anyrandom day. Additionally, by isolating and assessing the prevailing sea levelpressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions with and withoutAR involvement up to 7 days before the events, we show that the presence ofARs constitutes a specific type of forcing conditions that (i) resemble theSLP anomaly patterns during the positive phase of the North AtlanticOscillation (NAO+) with a north–south pressure dipole over the NorthAtlantic and (ii) cause a cooling of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre andeastern boundary upwelling zone while warming the western boundary of theNorth Atlantic. These conditions are clearly distinguishable from thoseduring compound events without the influence of an AR which occur under SLPconditions resembling the East Atlantic (EA) pattern with a west–eastpressure dipole over northern Europe and are accompanied by a cooling of theWest Atlantic. Thus, this study shows that ARs are a useful tool for theearly identification of possible harmful meteorological conditions over theNetherlands and supports an effort for the establishment of an early warningsystem.

The role of atmospheric rivers in compound events consisting of heavy precipitation and high storm surges along the Dutch coast