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Abstract. The last earthquake that affected the city of Coquimbo tookplace in September 2015 and had a magnitude of Mw=8.3 , resulting in localizeddamage in low-lying areas of the city. In addition, another seismic gap northof the 2015 earthquake rupture area has been identified; therefore, asignificant earthquake ( Mw=8.2 to 8.5) and tsunami could occur in the nearfuture. The present paper develops a tsunami fragility curve for the cityof Coquimbo based on field survey data and tsunami numerical simulations. Theinundation depth of the 2015 Chile tsunami in Coquimbo was estimated by meansof numerical simulation with the Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) model and five nested grids with amaximum grid resolution of 10 m. The fragility curve exhibited behaviorsimilar to that of other curves in flat areas in Japan, where little damagewas observed at relatively high inundation depths. In addition, it wasobserved that Coquimbo experienced less damage than Dichato (Chile); in fact,at an inundation depth of 2 m, Dichato had a ∼75  %probability of damage, while Coquimbo proved to have only a 20 %probability. The new fragility curve was used to estimate the damage bypossible future tsunamis in the area. The damage assessment showed that ∼50  % of the structures in the low-lying area of Coquimbohave a high probability of damage in the case of a tsunami generated off thecoast of the study area if the city is rebuilt with the same types of structures.

Development and application of a tsunami fragility curve of the 2015 tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile