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. The objectives of this study were to assess the predictability ofexceptionally cold water in the Taiwan Strait (TS) and to develop a warningsystem on the basis of the scientific mechanism, which is a component of theinformation technology system currently under development in Taiwan toprotect aquaculture against extreme hazards. Optimum interpolation seasurface temperature (SST) data were used to find exceptionally cold waterdays from January 1995 to May 2017. We found that the SST and wind speed overthe TS are low and strong in La Nina winters, respectively. According totests conducted using relative operating characteristic curves, predictionsbased on the Oceanic Nino Index and integrated wind speed can be employedat lead times of 60–120 and 0–25 days, respectively. This study utilizedthese two proxies to develop a possible warning mechanism and concluded fourcolors of warning light: (1) blue, meaning normal (0 % occurrenceprobability); (2) cyan, meaning warning ( ∼ 50  % occurrenceprobability); (3) yellow, meaning moderate risk ( ∼ 60  % occurrenceprobability); and (4) red, meaning high risk ( ∼ 75  % occurrenceprobability). Hindcasting winters over the period 1995–2017 successfullypredicted the cold water hazards in the winters of 2000, 2008, and 2011 priorto the coldest day by ∼ 20  days.

Exceptionally cold water days in the southern Taiwan Strait: their predictability and relation to La Niña