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. Coastal flooding in the northernYucatan Peninsula is mainly associated with storm surge events triggered byhigh-pressure cold front systems. This study evaluates the hydrodynamicprocesses of the Chelem lagoon, Mexico and the flooding threat from coldfronts for the neighbouring town of Progreso. A 30-year water-level hindcast(excluding wave set-up) was performed because of the lack of long-term tidegauge records. In order to assess the relative contribution from wave set-upand residual and astronomical tides to total flooding, the two worst stormscenarios in terms of maximum residual tide (Event A) and maximum water level(Event B) were simulated. Numerical results suggest that during Event A thewave set-up contribution reaches 0.35 at the coast and 0.17 m inside thelagoon, and these values are smaller for Event B (0.30 and 0.14 m,respectively). Results of the effect of the tidal phase on wave set-up andresidual sea level show that (i) the wave set-up contribution increasesduring ebb tide and decreases during flood tide at the Chelem inlet, (ii) theresidual tide is larger (smaller) near low (high) or receding (rising) tide,and (iii) maximum flooding occurs when the storm peak coincides with risingor high tide. The numerical results confirm the important role of wave set-upon the assessment of coastal flooding in micro-tidal coastal environments.

Assessment of coastal flooding and associated hydrodynamic processes on the south-eastern coast of Mexico, during Central American cold surge events