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In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to causemultiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods,landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southernItaly. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severedamage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of thegeographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. Thetemporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a majorriver, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and evenless accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on theperiod of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealedthat in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response toextreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded tothe torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited therainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble–non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation ofthe possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of relatedgeohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEPalgorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used forlandslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall andrainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful forlandslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. Weacknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm indifferent meteorological, geological and physiographical settings

Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1–6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy