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Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant\udthreats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the\udcause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of\udthe risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many\udinfrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after\udmitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to\udquantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and\udthe assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an\udinternational expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores\uduncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised\udstructured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that\udexperts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to\udderive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant\uduncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities,\udreflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data\udand findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development\udof generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop