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The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy\udmillions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future\uddue to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or\udreduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools\udwhich can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the\udcountry. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for\udestimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a\udnew flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the\udbasis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the\udregion of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new\udAustralian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist\udaround the parameterized functional depth–damage relationship. After model\udcalibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of\udloss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an\uduncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a\udthree-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical\udsample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The\udpredictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water\uddepth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function\udperforms well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error), especially\udwhen the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate\udthe importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over\udother Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration\udof the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters\udbased on building practices across Italy

Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures