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Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and mayassist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that atFogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lavaflow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for thenext inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and asatellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographicmodel of the 2014–2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner(TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic informationfacilitates lava flow volume estimates of43.7 ± 5.2 × 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup> from the vertical differencebetween pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both thepre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild thesettlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the GermanTerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtainthe lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, whichassists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance.Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result ofmodifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. Thisimplies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assesslava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun bylava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknessesexceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be importantfor the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flowcrises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world

Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption