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Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may posesignificant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions,especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activitycaused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature.The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion showssome orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitudeof major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be suppliedwith warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on theshort-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting theoccurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is basedon a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates theGutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows ofincreased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithmwas developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarmepisodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (CanaryIslands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutiveseismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in thereal-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonicearthquakes

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience