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Hydrological drought  characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow)likely will change in the 21st century as a result  of climate change.The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency onclimatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. Inthis study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled andbias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set(reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigatedrought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period(1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced modelreasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types,suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing producerealistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future(2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decreasein drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase ofboth average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining droughtevents. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expectedin cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length ofthe snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates thesmallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probablywill lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climateregions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control periodshowed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are mostuncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought durationand severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of droughtevents, which should motivate water resource  managers to timely anticipate   theincreased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and todesign pro-active measures

natural hazards and earth system sciences

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models