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The temporal behaviour of precipitable water vapour (PWV) retrieved from GPSdelay data is analysed in a number of case studies of intense precipitationin the Lisbon area, in the period 2010–2012 and in a continuous annual cycleof 2012 observations. Such behaviour is found to correlate positively withthe probability of precipitation, especially in cases of severe rainfall. Theevolution of the GPS PWV in a few stations is analysed by a least-squaresfitting of a broken line tendency, made by a temporal sequence of ascents anddescents over the data. It is found that most severe rainfall events occur indescending trends after a long ascending period and that the most intenseevents occur after steep ascents in PWV. A simple algorithm, forecasting rainin the 6 h after a steep ascent of the GPS PWV in a single station, is foundto produce reasonable forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation in thenearby region, without significant misses in what concerns larger rainevents, but with a substantial amount of false alarms. It is suggested thatthis method could be improved by the analysis of 2-D or 3-D time-varying GPSPWV fields or by its joint use with other meteorological data relevant tonowcast precipitation

On the inclusion of GPS precipitable water vapour in the nowcasting of rainfall