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From theory to experience, earthquake probabilityassociated with an active fault should be gradually increasing with timesince the last event. In this paper, a new non-stationary earthquakeassessment motivated/derived from the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion isintroduced. Different from other non-stationary earthquake analyses, the newmodel can more clearly define and calculate the stress states between twocharacteristic earthquakes. In addition to the model development and thealgorithms, this paper also presents an example calculation to help explainand validate the new model. On the condition of best-estimate modelparameters, the example calculation shows a 7.6 % probability for theMeishan fault in central Taiwan to induce a major earthquake in years 2015–2025,and if the earthquake does not occur by 2025, theearthquake probability will increase to 8 % in 2025–2035,which validates the new model that can calculate non-stationary earthquakeprobability as it should vary with time

A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion