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Globalization and technological revolutions are making the world moreinterconnected. International trade is an important approach linking theworld. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan shocked theglobal supply chain, more attention has been paid to the global impact oflarge-scale disasters. China is the second largest trader in the world andfaces frequent natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a gravitymodel for China's bilateral trade tailored to national circumstances andestimates the impact of natural disasters in China and trading partnercountries on Chinese imports and exports. We analyzed Chinese and tradingpartner statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Study results show the following: (1)China's natural disasters have a positive impact on exports but have nosignificant impact on imports; (2) trading partner countries' naturaldisasters reduce Chinese imports and exports; (3) both development level andland area of the partners are important in determining the intensity ofnatural disaster impacts on China's bilateral trade. The above findingssuggest that the impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric andsignificantly affected by other factors, which demand further study

The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade