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Droughts will likely become more frequent, greater in magnitude andlonger in duration in the future due to climate change. Already in the presentclimate, a variety of drought events may occur with different exceedancefrequencies. These frequencies are becoming more uncertain due to climatechange. Many methods in support of drought risk management focus onproviding insight into changing drought frequencies, and use water supplyreliability as a key decision criterion. In contrast, robustness analysisfocuses on providing insight into the full range of drought events and theirimpact on a system's functionality. This method has been developed for floodrisk systems, but applications on drought risk systems are lacking. Thispaper aims to develop robustness analysis for drought risk systems, andillustrates the approach through a case study with a water supply reservoirand its users. We explore drought characterization and the assessment of asystem's ability to deal with drought events, by quantifying the severityand socio-economic impact of a variety of drought events, both frequent andrare ones. Furthermore, we show the effect of three common droughtmanagement strategies (increasing supply, reducing demand and implementinghedging rules) on the robustness of the coupled water supply andsocio-economic system. The case is inspired by Oologah Lake, a multipurposereservoir in Oklahoma, United States. Results demonstrate that althoughdemand reduction and supply increase may have a comparable effect on thesupply reliability, demand reduction may be preferred from a robustnessperspective. To prepare drought management plans for dealing with currentand future droughts, it is thus recommended to test how alternative droughtstrategies contribute to a system's robustness rather than relying solely onwater reliability as the decision criterion

Developing system robustness analysis for drought risk management: an application on a water supply reservoir