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Natural disasters have enormous impacts on human society, especially on thedevelopment of the economy. To support decision-making in mitigation andadaption to natural disasters, assessment of economic impacts is fundamentaland of great significance. Based on a review of the literature on economicimpact evaluation, this paper proposes a new assessment model of the economicimpacts of droughts by using the sugar industry in China as a case study,which focuses on the generation and transfer of economic impacts along asimple value chain involving only sugarcane growers and a sugar-producingcompany. A perspective of profit loss rate is applied to scale economicimpact. By using "with and without" analysis, profit loss is defined asthe difference in profits between disaster-hit and disaster-free scenarios.To calculate profit, analysis of a time series of sugar price is applied. With the support of a linear regression model, an endogenous trend in sugarprice is identified and the time series of sugar price "without" disasteris obtained, using an autoregressive error model to separate impact ofdisasters from the internal trend in sugar price. Unlike the settings inother assessment models, representative sugar prices, which represent valuelevel in disaster-free conditions and disaster-hit conditions, are integratedfrom a long time series that covers the whole period of drought. As a result, it is found that in a rigid farming contract, sugarcane growerssuffer far more than the sugar company when impacted by severe drought, whichmay promote reflections among various economicbodies on economic equality related to the occurrence of natural disasters. Further, sensitivity analysisof the model built reveals that sugarcane purchase price has a significantinfluence on profit loss rate, which implies that setting a proper sugarcanepurchase price would be an effective way of realizing economic equality infuture practice of contract farming

Assessing the economic impacts of drought from the perspective of profit loss rate: a case study of the sugar industry in China