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We evaluated the spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in theGanges and Brahmaputra basins as modulated by the El Niño SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes using GlobalPrecipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis of monthlyglobal land-surface precipitation data from 1901 to 2010 with a spatialresolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The GPCC monthly totalprecipitation climatology targeting the period 1951–2000 was used tocompute gridded monthly anomalies for the entire time period. The griddedmonthly anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by combinations ofclimate modes. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduce (88%of the long-term average (LTA)) precipitation during the monsoon months inthe western and southeastern Ganges Basin. In contrast, occurrences of LaNiña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD eventssignificantly enhance (110 and 109% of LTA in the Ganges andBrahmaputra Basin, respectively) precipitation across both basins. When ElNiño co-occurs with positive IOD events, the impacts of El Niño onthe basins' precipitation diminishes. When there is no active ENSO or IODevents (occurring in 41 out of 110 years), precipitation remains below average (95% of LTA) inthe agriculturally intensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan,Madhya Pradesh, and Western Nepal in the Ganges Basin, whereas precipitationremains average to above average (104% of LTA) across the BrahmaputraBasin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely,especially in the Ganges Basin, with implications for the agriculture sectordue to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production.Historically, major droughts occurred during El Niño and co-occurrencesof El Niño and positive IOD events, while major flooding occurred duringLa Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events in thebasins. This observational analysis will facilitate well-informed decisionmaking in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts onagriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized useof water resources in best management practice under a changing climate

natural hazards and earth system sciences

Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought