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Typhoon Talas (2011) caused extensive damage through landslides on the KiiPeninsula, Japan, in September 2011. The purpose of the present study is toquantitatively describe the potential for the occurrence of heavyrainfall-induced disasters if the typhoon track perturbs slightly or thetyphoon intensifies. Regarding to the consideration of the track displacementof the typhoon, a procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracksperturbed from the original track of the typhoon. In this procedure, theposition of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time beforelanding in a physically consistent manner by applying potential vorticityinversion (PVI) methodology. After relocating the typhoon, the subsequentprogress is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model. Using the output,which consists of a set of realizations having different typhoon tracks, theworst-case scenario is discussed in terms of the soil water index (SWI) ofthe Kii Peninsula. The SWI is an indicator of the amount of water in soilthat represents the hazard of landslide disasters. The maximum spatiallyaveraged SWI is 1.10 times as large as that from the original typhoon track.Regarding the consideration of severer typhoon, the same method is used, butthe intensity of the potential vorticity of a typhoon is artificiallymodified at the position instead of relocating potential vorticity to adifferent place. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.28 times as large asthat of the original typhoon intensity

Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity