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Historical fire records and meteorological observations spanning over onecentury (1894–2010) were assembled in a database to collect long-term fireand weather data in Greece. Positive/negative events of fire occurrence onan annual basis were considered as the years where the annual values of theexamined parameters were above (positive values) or below (negative values)the 95% confidence limits around the trend line of the correspondingparameter. To analyse the association of positive/negative events of fireoccurrence with  meteorological extremes, we proceeded with a cross-tabulationanalysis based on a Monte Carlo randomization.  Positive/negative values of total annual precipitation were randomlyassociated with the corresponding values of burned areas, and significantassociations were observed for seasonal precipitation totals (spring andfire season). Fire season precipitation is the dominant factor coincidingwith negative values of area burned, while years with high springprecipitation coincide with years with large areas burned. These resultsdemonstrate the dual role of precipitation in controlling a fire's extentthrough fuel build-up and dryness. Additionally, there is a clearoutperformance of precipitation-related variables compared with temperature-related weatherrevealing that, at least in Greece, total area burned at the nationalscale is controlled by precipitation totals rather than air temperature.  This analysis improves our understanding of the underlying mechanisms offire regimes and provides valuable information concerning the development ofmodels relating fire activity to weather parameters, which are essentialwhen facing a changing climate that may be associated with shifts in variousaspects of the typical fire regimes of ecosystems. Our results may allowfire managers to more easily incorporate the effect of extreme weatherconditions into long-term planning strategies. They contribute to theexploration of fire–climate relationships and may become more important ifclimate change scenarios are used to predict the occurrence of futureextreme weather taking into consideration that climate change is discussedon the basis of changes of extremes rather than changes in means

Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness