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Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs,is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. Toensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazardassessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which includethe compilation of geological and volcanological information, thecharacterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilisticstudies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being adensely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitorsper year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on theCanary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, theyoungest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption.We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporalprobability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. thewhere, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the islandand assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim toidentify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, whichinclude lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents(PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result,through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows,pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitativeintegrated volcanic hazard map of the island

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)