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Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions.Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence,glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability ofmountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and otherfactors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentiallyimpact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburstfloods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to bedeveloped to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a locallevel. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are notavailable and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and futuredamage potential.  Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lakeoutbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). Togenerate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modellingwas applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work.Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-usechanges based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-usedriving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use andtwo hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk inthe community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The studyunderlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing onland-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structuralmeasures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lakeoutburst floods

Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes