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Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremesare estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climatesfor Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and MiddleEast region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extremeclimate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise whileprecipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vitalsocioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for therecent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatialdistribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strongincreasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkeyand the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, whilewarming is expected to be strongest insummer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends inannual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and0.6 °C decade−1 respectively. Recent estimates do not indicatestatistically significant trends in precipitation except for individualsub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area overthe last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positiveand statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trendpatterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates ofapproximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the MiddleEastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming(0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects dryingtrends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21stcentury, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days year−1,while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in thehigh-elevation areas by 15 days year−1

Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region