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Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and howsuch changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changingclimate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from tworeanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporalvariation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, weused national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland toexamine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvioustrend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999),whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI showsan increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national levelin Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of thecurrent season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the currentfire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk ismultifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors cancontribute to it, either positively or negatively

Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012