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The Liguria coastal region in Italy was affected by two heavy rainfallepisodes and subsequent severe flooding that occurred at the end of Octoberand the beginning of November 2011. In both cases, the very large accumulatedprecipitation maxima were associated with intense and quasi-stationaryconvective systems that developed near the coast, both related to orographiclift and similar low-level mesoscale flow patterns over the Ligurian Sea,giving rise to pronounced convergence lines.  This study aims at analysing the main dynamical processes responsible for theonset, lifecycle, intensity and localisation/propagation of the precipitatingsystems, using the ISAC convection-permitting model MOLOCH applied atdifferent spatial resolutions and comparing model output fields withavailable observations. The ability of the model in quantitativeprecipitation forecasting (QPF) is tested with respect to initial conditionsand model horizontal resolution. Although precipitation maxima remainunderestimated in the model experiments, it is shown that errors in QPF inboth amount and position tend to decrease with increasing grid resolution.  It is shown that model accuracy in forecasting rainfall amounts andlocalisation of the precipitating systems critically depends on the abilityto represent the cold air outflow from the Po Valley to the Ligurian Sea,which determines the position and intensity of the mesoscale convergencelines over the sea. Such convergence lines controls, together with thelifting produced by the Apennines chain surrounding the coast, the onset ofthe severe convection

Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria in autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments