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Due to the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake, massive radioactive materials were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear PowerPlant (Fukushima NPP). It is crucial to predict the regional distribution and magnitude of the effects on wildlife by radioactivematerials. However, during the post-accident early stage in 2011, limited information on large-scale pollution and prediction maps wasopen to public. Hence, this paper aimed to provide (1) the pollution map covering areas within 300 km from the Fukushima NPP wherethe radiation intensity exceeded 0.5 μSv/h, (2) pollution maps which predicted air dose for the next 30 years after the accident, and (3)maps of areas where wildlife might be affected by radioactive isotopes by the Fukushima nuclear accident. First, the relativecontributions of 131I, 134Cs, and 137Cs were estimated from time series observation data. Second, a 30-year prediction of the pollutionwas calculated based on the isotope half-lives. Third, the chronic radiation effects on vertebrates were estimated using the thresholddose rate proposed by Sazykina et al. (2009). We examined the chronic radiation effects on morbidity, reproduction, and longevity.The results indicated that radioactive materials could have affected vertebrate morbidity within a 350 km2 area in early April 2011; thethreshold level was the median result of Sazykina et al. (2009) with bootstrapping. Based on the prediction, a 15.5 km2 region willremain affected after 30 years. These areas should be monitored to confirm the effects of radioactivity on wildlife

the international archives of the photogrammetry, remote sensing and spatial information sciences/international archives of the photogrammetry, remote sensing and spatial information sciences

Forecasting Radiation Effects on Wildlife in Japan After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, Based on Limited Information of Post-Accident Early Stage in 2011