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. Ephemeral streams are highly dependent on rainfall and terraincharacteristics and, therefore, very sensitive to minor changes in theseenvironments. The western Mediterranean area exhibits a highly irregularprecipitation regime with a great variety of rainfall events driving theflow generation on intermittent watercourses, and future climate changescenarios depict a lower magnitude and higher intensity of precipitation inthis area, potentially leading to severe changes in flows. We explored therainfall–runoff relationships in two semi-arid watersheds in southern Spain(Algeciras and Upper Mula) to model the different types of rainfall eventsrequired to generate new flow in both intermittent streams. We used anon-linear approach through generalized additive models at event scale interms of magnitude, duration, and intensity, contextualizing resultingthresholds in a long-term perspective through the calculation of returnperiods. Results showed that the average ∼ 1.2 d and&lt; 1.5 mm event was not enough to create new flows. At least a 4 devent ranging from 4 to 20 mm, depending on the watershed, was needed toensure new flow at a high probability (95 %). While these thresholdsrepresented low return periods, the great irregularity of annualprecipitation and rainfall characteristics makes prediction highlyuncertain. Almost a third of the rainfall events resulted in similar flow to orlower flow than the previous day, emphasizing the importance of lithological andterrain characteristics that lead to differences in flow generation betweenthe watersheds.

Rainfall–runoff relationships at event scale in western Mediterranean ephemeral streams