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. The accelerated consumption of water resources caused bythe rapid increase in population and urbanization is intensifying thecomplex interactions across water resources, socioeconomic development,ecological protection, and food security (WSEF), which causes not only theimbalance between water supply and demand but also the vulnerability ofboth food and ecological systems. Therefore, identifying the dynamiccoevolution and feedback process is one of the most crucial ways of achieving the goal of sustainable water use. In this study, we developed an integrated modeling framework to better identify the dynamic interaction and coevolution process of the nexus across WSEF systems in the context ofsustainable water uses by coupling system dynamic (SD) model andmulti-objective optimization model. The SD model is used to simulate boththe dynamic interaction of each agent and the coevolution process of thewhole nexus system by positive/negative feedback loops. The multi-objectiveoptimization model is used to quantify the negative feedback loops of the SD model by generating the optimal scheme of different water users. Finally, the model uncertainty considering different weighting factors is analyzed. The framework is applied to the upper reaches of the Guijiang River basin, China. Results show that (i) the rapid economic growth increases the conflict between the water uses for socioeconomic development and ecological protection, intensifying the ecological awareness and resulting in more water shortages of socioeconomic and food agents, which is unable to support such rapid development. (ii) Once the economic growth rate decreases, water resources are able to support economic development with a decreased overload index and stable crop yield, which further contributes to water sustainability. (iii) The river ecological agent is the critical factor that affects the robustness of the model. (iv) The equal consideration of each water usage is the most beneficial to sustainable development. These results highlight the importance of water resources management, considering the tradeoffs across multiple stakeholders, and give a strong reference to policymakers for comprehensive urban planning.

hydrology and earth system sciences

Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use