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. Current climate modelling frameworks present significantuncertainties when it comes to quantifying flood quantiles in the context ofclimate change, calling for new information and strategies in hazardassessments. Here, state-of-the-art methods on hydraulic and statisticalmodelling are applied to historical and contemporaneous flood records toevaluate flood hazards beyond natural climate cycles. A comprehensive floodrecord of the Duero River in Zamora (Spain) was compiled from documentarysources, early water-level readings and continuous gauge records spanningthe last 500 years. Documentary evidence of flood events includes minutebooks (municipal and ecclesiastic), narrative descriptions, epigraphicmarks, newspapers and technical reports. We identified 69 flood events overthe period 1250 to 1871, of which 15 were classified as catastrophicfloods, 16 as extraordinary floods and 38 as ordinary floods. Subsequently,a two-dimensional hydraulic model was implemented to relate flood stages (flood marks andinundated areas) to discharges. The historical flood records show thelargest floods over the last 500 years occurred in 1860 (3450 m3 s−1),1597 (3200 m3 s−1) and 1739 (2700 m3 s−1). Moreover, at least 24floods exceeded the perception threshold of 1900 m3 s−1 during the period(1500–1871). Annual maximum flood records were completed with gaugedwater-level readings (pre-instrumental dataset, PRE: 1872–1919) and systematic gauge records (systematicdataset, SYS:1920–2018). The flood frequency analyses were based on (1) the expected momentsalgorithm (EMA) and (2) the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method, usingfive datasets with different temporal frameworks (historic dataset, HISTO: 1511–2018; PRE–SYS:1872–2018; full systematic record, ALLSYS: 1920–2018; SYS1: 1920–1969; and SYS2: 1970–2018). Themost consistent results were obtained using the HISTO dataset, even for highquantiles (0.001 % annual exceedance probability, AEP). PRE–SYS was robustfor the 1 % AEP flood with increasing uncertainty in the 0.2 % AEP or500-year flood, and ALLSYS results were uncertain in the 1 % and 0.2 %AEP floods. Since the 1970s, the frequency of extraordinary floods(&gt;1900 m3 s−1) declined, although floods on the range of thehistorical perception threshold occurred in 2001 (2075 m3 s−1) and 2013(1654 m3 s−1). Even if the future remains uncertain, this bottom-upapproach addresses flood hazards under climate variability, providing realand certain flood discharges. Our results can provide a guide on low-regretadaptation decisions and improve public perception of extreme flooding.

Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain)