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. The term “flash drought” is frequently invoked to describe droughts thatdevelop rapidly over a relatively short timescale. Despite extensive andgrowing research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends,there is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses allflash drought characteristics and pathways. Instead, diverse definitionshave been proposed, supporting wide-ranging studies of flash drought butcreating the potential for confusion as to what the term means and how tocharacterize it. Use of different definitions might also lead to differentconclusions regarding flash drought frequency, predictability, and trendsunder climate change. In this study, we compared five previously publisheddefinitions, a newly proposed definition, and an operational satellite-baseddrought monitoring product to clarify conceptual differences and toinvestigate the sensitivity of flash drought inventories and trends to thechoice of definition. Our analyses indicate that the newly introduced SoilMoisture Volatility Index definition effectively captures flash droughtonset in both humid and semi-arid regions. Analyses also showed thatestimates of flash drought frequency, spatial distribution, and seasonalityvary across the contiguous United States depending upon which definition is used.Definitions differ in their representation of some of the largest and mostwidely studied flash droughts of recent years. Trend analysis indicates thatdefinitions that include air temperature show significant increases in flashdroughts over the past 40 years, but few trends are evident fordefinitions based on other surface conditions or fluxes. These resultsindicate that “flash drought” is a composite term that includes severaltypes of events and that clarity in definition is critical when monitoring,forecasting, or projecting the drought phenomenon.

Flash drought onset over the contiguous United States: sensitivity of inventories and trends to quantitative definitions