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Abstract. Floods and flash floods are complex events, depending onweather dynamics, basin physiographical characteristics, land use cover andwater management. For this reason, the prediction of such events usually dealswith very accurate model tuning and validation, which is usuallysite-specific and based on climatological data, such as discharge timeseries or flood databases. In this work, we developed and tested twohydrological-stress indices for flood detection in the Italian CentralApennine District: a heterogeneous geographical area, characterized bycomplex topography and medium-to-small catchment extension. The proposed indicesare threshold-based and developed considering operational requirements ofNational Civil Protection Department end-users. They are calibrated and tested through theapplication of signal theory, in order to overcome data scarcity overungauged areas, as well as incomplete discharge time series. The validationhas been carried out on a case study basis, using flood reports from varioussources of information, as well as hydrometric-level time series, whichrepresent the actual hydrological quantity monitored by Civil Protectionoperators. Obtained results show that the overall accuracy of floodprediction is greater than 0.8, with false alarm rates below 0.5 andthe probability of detection ranging from 0.51 to 0.80. Moreover, the differentnature of the proposed indices suggests their application in a complementaryway, as the index based on drained precipitation appears to be more sensitiveto rapid flood propagation in small tributaries, while the discharge-basedindex is particularly responsive to main-channel dynamics.

hydrology and earth system sciences

User-oriented hydrological indices for early warning systems with validation using post-event surveys: flood case studies in the Central Apennine District