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Abstract. Hydrological models are useful tools for exploring the impact of climate change. To prioritize parameters for calibration and to evaluate hydrologicalmodel functioning, sensitivity analysis can be conducted. Parametersensitivity, however, varies over climate, and therefore climate change couldinfluence parameter sensitivity. In this study we explore the change inparameter sensitivity for the mean discharge and the timing of the discharge,within a plausible climate change rate. We investigate whether changes in sensitivity propagate into the calibration strategy and diagnostically compare three hydrological models based on the sensitivity results. Weemployed three frequently used hydrological models (SAC, VIC, and HBV) and explored parameter sensitivity changes across 605 catchments in the UnitedStates by comparing GCM(RCP8.5)-forced historical and futureperiods. Consistent among all hydrological models and both for the meandischarge and the timing of the discharge is that the sensitivity of snow parameters decreases in the future. Which other parameters increase insensitivity is less consistent among the hydrological models. In 45  % to 55  % of the catchments, dependent on the hydrological model, atleast one parameter changes in the future in the top-5 most sensitiveparameters for mean discharge. For the timing, this varies between40  % and 88  % . This requires an adapted calibration strategyfor long-term projections, for which we provide several suggestions. Thedisagreement among the models on the processes that become more relevant infuture projections also calls for a strict evaluation of the adequacy of themodel structure for long-term simulations.

Climate change impacts model parameter sensitivity – implications for calibration strategy and model diagnostic evaluation