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. Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, thehydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming targets aresimulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changesin temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing coldextremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warmingconditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequentlyin low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annualprecipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodelagreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximumextreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10 % increase inintensity under 2.0 ∘C of warming) in all climate zones. Theprecipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent andmagnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0 ∘C (compared with the 1.5 ∘C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10 %). More importantly, an extra 0.5 ∘C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. Theresults of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regionalhydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation andsuggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regionalclimate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia.

Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming