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. Lakes provide many important benefits to society, includingdrinking water, flood attenuation, nutrition, and recreation. Anthropogenicenvironmental changes may affect these benefits by altering lake waterlevels. However, background climate oscillations such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation can obscurelong-term trends in water levels, creating uncertainty over the strength andubiquity of anthropogenic effects on lakes. Here we account for the effectsof background climate variation and test for long-term (1992–2019) trends inwater levels in 200 globally distributed large lakes using satellitealtimetry data. The median percentage of water level variation associatedwith background climate variation was 58 %, with an additional 10 %explained by seasonal variation and 25 % by the long-term trend. Therelative influence of specific axes of background climate variation on waterlevels varied substantially across and within regions. After removing theeffects of background climate variation on water levels, long-term waterlevel trend estimates were lower (median: +0.8 cm yr−1) thancalculated from raw water level data (median: +1.2 cm yr−1).However, the trends became more statistically significant in 86 % of lakesafter removing the effects of background climate variation (the medianp value of trends changed from 0.16 to 0.02). Thus, robust tests forlong-term trends in lake water levels which may or may not be anthropogenicwill require prior isolation and removal of the effects of backgroundclimate variation. Our findings suggest that background climate variationoften masks long-term trends in environmental variables but can beaccounted for through more comprehensive statistical analyses.

Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation